I combine theory and large-scale field data to understand conditions that erode or reinforce resilience in complex ecosystems. In the process, I explore fundamental questions at the interface of community and landscape ecology as well as applied questions ranging from invasive species impacts to conservation in coupled socio-ecological systems.
I am an NSF postdoctoral fellow at the University of Kansas. As a quantitative ecologist, my work spans theory (nonlinear, individual-based, and network dynamics) and field data in large aquatic systems, unified by statistics (GAMs, probability, machine learning, high-performance computing). GoogleScholarTwitter vadimk(at)ku.edu
Recent publications (for a full list, please see my CV) Resilience of biologically complex systems: 25. Karatayev, V.A., M.L. Baskett, E.H. van Nes. The potential for alternative stable states in food webs depends on feedback type and trait diversity.American Naturalist, in press. 24. Karatayev, V.A. and M.L. Baskett. 2020. At what spatial scales are alternative stable states relevant in highly interconnected ecosystems?Ecology 101:e02930. 23. Karatayev, V.A., V.V. Vasconcelos, A. Lafuite, S.A. Levin, C.T. Bauch, and M. Anand. 2021. A well-timed switch from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation.Nature Communications 12:1-7. 22. Karatayev, V.A., R.S. Wilson, D.G. Webster, M. Axelrod, C.T. Bauch, and M. Anand. Acclimating to degraded environments: The social rationale for swift action on restoration.bioRxiv; in review 21. Karatayev, V.A., L.G. Rudstam, Karatayev, A.Y., et al. Serial invasions disrupt the time course of lake ecosystem recovery.bioRxiv; in review
Landscape dynamics: 20. Karatayev, V.A., M.L. Baskett, D.J. Kushner, N.T. Shears, C.T. Boettiger, and J.E. Caselle. 2021. Grazer behavior can regulate large-scale patterning of community states.Ecology Letters 24:1917-1929. 19. Karatayev, V.A., D.C. Reuman, K.C. Cavanaugh, T.E. Bell, M.C. Castorani, and J.A. Walter. Warm climates erode resilience and trigger region-wide overgrazing of giant kelp forests.bioRxiv; in prep. 18. Karatayev, V.A., M. Anand, and C.T. Bauch. 2020. Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(39):24575-24580. 17. Fair, K.R. V.A. Karatayev, et al. 2022. Estimating COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented by non-pharmaceutical interventions and individual actions.Epidemics. 16. Fair, K.R., V.A. Karatayev, C.T. Bauch, and M. Anand. Behavioural dynamics can mediate the persistence of emerging infectious diseases.medRxiv; in review 15. Oke, K.B., P.H. Westley, C.J. Cunningham, M.L. Baskett, S.M. Carlson, J. Clark, A.P. Hendry, V.A. Karatayev, et al. 2020. Recent declines in salmon body size impact ecosystems and fisheries.Nature Communications 11:4155. 14. Karatayev, A.Y., V.A. Karatayev, L.E. Burlakova, K. Mehler., M.D. Rowe, A.K. Elgin, and T. Nalepa. 2021. Lake morphometry determines Dreissena invasion dynamics.Biological Invasions 23:2489-2514. 13. Karatayev, V.A., L.E. Burlakova, A.Y. Karatayev, L. Yang, and T. Miller. 2020. Advection exacerbates population decline from habitat loss: maintaining threatened taxa while restoring natural river flow regimes.Oecologia 193:773-785.